Where German electoral contenders stand on Europe

Germany’s election on September 24 is not just about who will become chancellor — it will influence the future design of the European Union.

German voters have to decide whether Angela Merkel or her main challenger Martin Schulz — who lags by about 15 percentage points in polls — will lead the EU’s most populous country and push her or his vision on issues such as eurozone reform, defense cooperation and migration during the next four years.

Also important for Berlin’s future position on Europe is whether any of the smaller parties end up in government as a junior coalition partner. Although Merkel has a comfortable poll lead and is widely expected to score her fourth victory in the national election, her conservatives will most likely need the support of at least one if not two other parties to govern.

The same is true for Schulz’s Social Democrats (SPD), if the former European Parliament president defies expectations and overtakes Merkel.

With six groups expected to enter the Bundestag, the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens are potential coalition partners for the two big parties, while the far-left Die Linke and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — a Euroskeptic party that could win seats in the national parliament for the very first time — are unlikely to be courted.

It’s still possible there could be another "grand coalition” between Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, with Schulz’s SPD. However, the Social Democrats have made it clear they are not keen on serving another term in Merkel’s shadow.

Ask high-ranking officials among Merkel’s conservatives how they plan to explain to the German public that their country is likely to pick up a sizeable chunk of the shortfall in the EU budget once the U.K. leaves in 2019, and they will tell you privately that it’s a matter of security.

"The times when we could rely on others are over to a certain degree,” reads the chapter on Europe in the CDU/CSU’s manifesto, echoing Merkel’s beer hall speech from May when, after meeting U.S. President Donald Trump, she said Europe must "take our fate into our own hands.” The conservatives believe that for Germany to remain safe and prosperous, the EU needs to move toward a European defense union.

The SPD and FDP both go a step further and call for the creation of a European army. Even the pacifist Greens support further European cooperation on defense, while stressing that "civil crisis prevention” should always have priority.

When it comes to the details, however, party positions differ — especially on military spending. The CDU/CSU and FDP are committed to bringing Germany’s military spending up to 2 percent of GDP by 2024, a guideline agreed by NATO members in 2014. The SPD, however, says "saber-rattling won’t solve any conflicts” and leaves no doubt it will block such a push, as would the Greens.

Opinions also differ when it comes to internal security, particularly the border controls inside the passport-free Schengen area that were introduced at the height of the refugee crisis and are still in effect. While the Greens say they want a return to open borders in the Schengen zone, Merkel’s conservatives say that they will maintain border checks "until the protection of the EU external borders works.”

There is a high level of consensus regarding the future role of the EU’s border agency Frontex.

The CDU/CSU, the SPD and the FDP all want to strengthen the agency’s role. The Greens, who have previously been critical of expanding Frontex, don’t mention it in their manifesto — which may signal that they’re open to compromise if they end up in government.

What that means: Expect Germany to get tougher on other EU members who are reluctant to take in their share of refugees. What position Germany takes on reforming the EU’s asylum system, however, will depend heavily on who’s in government.

After the shock of coping with almost a million asylum seekers in 2015, all the parties except the AfD agree that other EU countries should be obliged to help Germany and other highly-affected countries carry the burden.

"Europe has a joint responsibility for refugees,” reads the conservative manifesto.