Absence of a unified opposition overshadows Syria peace talks in Sochi

Tabnak – Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi is hosting representatives of the Syrian government and some opposition groups to hold talks on political transition in the war-torn country. However, the absence of some other influential opposition bodies casts doubt on the prospects for success of Moscow’s initiative. 

According to the Russian state media Russia Today, the Sochi Congress is expected to boost the peace process and kick-start efforts to draft a new constitution. The event, named as Syrian National Dialogue Congress is expected to last for two days, the main negotiations taking place on Tuesday.

The Congress is sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran, the leaders of the three countries having agreed to the all-Syrian Congress in November. The main goal of the meeting is to gather “delegates from various political parties, internal and external opposition, ethnic and confessional groups at the negotiating table,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the time.

United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura is among the people attending the Congress of National Dialog along with some 1,600 people representing a wide range of Syria's political forces. 

However, Saudi-backed opposition group, the Syrian High Negotiation Commission (HNC), has boycotted the talks and Syria’s main Kurdish militant group has said it will be absent over a Turkish incursion into northern Syria.

Other external opposition will be presented at the congress however. Among them are delegates from the Moscow Platform Qadri Jamil, Randa Kassis from the Astana platform, members of Syria’s Tomorrow movement led by Ahmad Jarba and Haytham Manna from the Syrian National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change.

Reacting to the formation of Syrian opposition in Sochi, Moscow said on Monday that the absence of some representatives of the opposition will not be a serious setback for the conference.

"The fact that some representatives of the processes currently ongoing in Syria are not participating is unlikely to stop this congress from going ahead and cannot seriously sabotage it," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. 

Russia, Iran and Turkey hope the talks could compensate for the lack of progress in UN-brokered talks to end Syria's seven-year war. The three countries have coordinated the establishment of de-escalation zones in Syria - a separate initiative which many say has helped drastically reduce fighting in the Arab country.

On January 26, the ninth round of UN-brokered indirect peace negotiations between the Syrian government and opposition groups was held in the Austrian capital city of Vienna.

However, given the fact that the Saudi-backed opposition is still hesitating to join the process initiated by Iran, Russia and Turkey on the one hand and the continuation of Turkish military operation against the Kurds in northern Syria on the other, observers express doubt that Sochi talks could bring about a meaningful change on the ground – at least in the short term.