A year of Trump: Two alternate realities

There are two alternate realities after a year of President Donald Trump.

Either he is leading an extraordinary American revival of a booming economy, soaring confidence, tough leadership and a return to conservative values.

Or he is an embarrassment, stumbling from crisis to crisis, hamstrung by his political inexperience and making America an international laughing stock.

It depends on who you speak to as to which story you will hear.

Trump's first year has undoubtedly had its achievements: the passage of the first tax overhaul for decades, although not universally popular by any means, was a big deal.

But it has been overshadowed by controversy, rancour and failure to deliver those things he promised to deliver "on day one", like repealing Obamacare and building that wall. International relations have hardly been smooth sailing either.

As the anniversary arrives, Americans are drowning under news features from 'Trump country' seeking out what the voters who propelled him to power now make of their saviour.

In summary, they liked him then and they like him now and they think the media is being too hard on him.

Similarly, the Americans who voted for someone else - and that is the majority, after all - don’t appear to have shifted very much in their opinions either.

We are left then with the mysterious science of 'approval ratings' which have shown for months that Trump's popularity is sinking fast. In fact, taking into account the built-in hard core support for any politician, they probably cannot go any lower.

But try to find whole droves of Trump voters who have abandoned him and you will be looking for a long time.

Because for many, while they might not 'approve' of the tweeting, conflicts and bad language, they still believe he is doing what they wanted: creating jobs, lowering taxes and hammering the bad guys.

They do not see evidence that the Russia investigation is a serious threat - maybe because they don’t want to - and are not paying that much attention to the frenzied news coverage.

In short, the President has little to worry about amongst his much-talked-about 'base'.

More significant though is the sliver of American voters, spread out in small pockets across odd counties in various states, who tend to prove decisive on the country’s politics.

Small shifts in opinion there, satisfaction and dissatisfaction, will be the most telling and the next reliable gauge of that will come in the mid-term elections in November.

Congressional and gubernatorial elections in the last year have held some warning signs and there is a real prospect of Democrats taking back Capitol Hill this year - and that would cripple this administration, unless the Commander-in-chief rediscovers the 'art of the deal'.

It means that, as Donald Trump toasts his first year in office, this might be as good as it gets for his presidency.