Austria’s Sebastian Kurz surges ahead in polls

Sebastian Kurz may have just lost a vote of confidence, but new polls show he could ultimately end up Austria's chancellor again.

A survey conducted for Austria's Krone newspaper showed Kurz's center-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) at 38 percent, compared to the 31.5 percent the party won in the October 2017 national election. The Social Democrats followed with 21 percent, compared to 26.9 percent in 2017.

The poll was conducted last week between Wednesday and Friday — days after Kurz was ousted as chancellor in a parliamentary vote of no confidence. The vote was held after Kurz's coalition government between the ÖVP and far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) collapsed over the so-called Ibiza affair: A video emerged showing then vice chancellor and FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache meeting a woman he believed to be the wealthy niece of a Russian oligarch ahead of the 2017 election and attempting to trade lucrative public contracts for campaign support from her.

With a snap election now set for September, the poll published Sunday shows the FPÖ's support has dropped to 19 percent, down from the 26 percent they won in 2017.

Another poll published late last week also shows Kurz's party may be the biggest winner after the Ibiza affair. Demox Research found that the Austrian People's Party is at 37.5 percent, polling 3.5 percentage points higher than at the beginning of May, before the scandal broke.

The Social Democrats are at 22.5 percent, down 4.5 percentage points from the beginning of the month, while the Freedom Party is at 18.5 percent, down 3.5 percentage points, according to the Demox poll.

Both polls show that the liberal NEOS party and the Greens are also making gains, though still polling in fourth and fifth place, respectively. The Demox poll shows NEOS' approval rose by 2.5 percentage points to 10.5 percent since the beginning of May, while the Greens also got a 2.5 percentage point bump to 8.5 percent.