Turkey immersed in addictive uncertainty as voting begins

“It is precisely the uncertainty of this world that makes life worth living.”

There may be no better place to apply this old Japanese proverb than to Turkey. And, to boot, the country is nearing the end of election season.

From the coffee shops of Istanbul to the cotton fields of southeast Turkey, the country of 80 million people is awash with election fervour.

Turkey is a place that I and many foreign colleagues and friends will always love because its uncertainty makes it so precious. From street life to politics, and economic ups and downs to personal relations, nothing is dull. Life is extraordinary. Turks in Germany – where I currently reside – often appear bored. While less stressful, life is too predictable for them, and perhaps me. Not knowing what will happen from one day to the next, even one moment to the next, may be tiring at times, but it is also life’s rigor. It’s addictive, period.

Anyone who is involved in Turkey’s election campaign, due to end with a ballot for the president and parliament on Sunday, is completely rivetted. This is the country at its peak. Forget the British vote for Brexit or the Trump-Clinton showdown in the U.S., Turkey’s election, whether fair or not, stands above it all. Democracy, Turkish-style, is in full flow.

As the ballot boxes close, this almost blissful uncertainty will hardly abate. Who will win? How? Will the loser/s accept defeat? Whatever next?

But Turkey’s verve, and often its chaos, has its drawbacks. Millions remain unemployed, and that despite record economic growth. Corruption is still rife, the economy teeters on the brink of a possible crisis and the leadership style of current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes some people wonder whether the country will have a democracy left by the time the next election rolls around.

Hence, whoever wins power after the vote has his or her work cut out. Whether Erdogan and his party extend their 15-year rule, whether there is a division of power between an opposition-led parliament and the president, or if the opposition, led by Muharrem Ince, emerges victorious in both votes, the next government must swiftly address the country’s growing economic ills.

Uncertainty without hope is the worst kind. Turkey was wracked by financial crisis throughout much of the 1990s. Insecurity was palpable across the country. A final spell of chaos in 2000 sent interest rates into the thousands, put millions out of work, and almost brought everyone to their knees.

While the chances of a repeat of that catastrophe are small, Turkey is in danger of falling into a financial mess. The government has failed to take advantage of a flood of cash, let loose by monetary easing in the United States and Europe, to reform the nation’s $775 billion economy.

Instead of investing heavily in industry and technology, the administration in Ankara has used this “free ride” to empower allies in the construction industry, who have borrowed tens of billions to build highways, airports, apartment blocks and luxury villas. Many industrialists who were previously Erdoğan’s adversaries have followed suit, selling banks and manufacturing companies in search of a quick buck. Debts in dollars and euros have ballooned by tens of billions.

At the same time Erdoğan’s government, in its quest to become an important regional and, even, global power, appears to have become arrogant and complacent. That arrogance has manifested itself most damagingly in economic policy, so much so that Erdoğan, who allegedly graduated in economics from an Istanbul university, stubbornly opposes every theory in the economic playbook, including an assertion that higher interest rates cause inflation rather than suppress it. Foreign investors have been left flabbergasted and exacerbated. Locals have been forced to play along or remain silent for fear of personal reprisals.

So, it is no wonder that Turkey has become not only one of the fastest-growing economies in the world – it grew a thumping 7.4 percent last year – but also one of its most fragile. Just look at its huge current account deficit, currently 6.5 percent of GDP, fuelled by imports. Urgent action is needed to reverse course.

To top it off, the central bank was forced to raise interest rates by 500 basis points this year to stem a freefall in the lira that threatened a currency crisis. While bankruptcies are more commonplace and some of the country’s best-known businessmen have gone cap-in-hand to banks to restructure their dollar debts, it is Turkey’s middle and lower-class who are hurting the most. The cost of foreign cars, TV sets and mobile phones has surged as the lira slumped. Petrol prices have climbed ever upward. Rising food prices have pumped Inflation up to 12.2 percent and it is about to go higher.

In the meantime, in his search for regional power and popularity among Muslims in the Middle East and elsewhere, Erdoğan has turned Turkey’s foreign relations on its head, fighting with the United States and European Union to such an extent that carefully built diplomatic bridges are almost in ruin. The personal security that previously sound relations had brought to many Turks, despite economic troubles at home over the past decades, is also under threat, especially for millions upon millions of Western-orientated secularists and liberals.

Erdoğan’s efforts to strengthen his grip on the country has also succeeded in divided it, increasingly so since the introduction of emergency rule after a failed military coup in July 2016. Hundreds of thousands of so-called “terrorists” are either in jail or without a job. Billions of dollars in assets have been seized. And now there is the question of how Erdoğan will govern, emergency rule or not, should he win Sunday’s election and a full presidential system of government is introduced. Nearly every poll puts him ahead.

So, following perhaps the world’s most exciting election since the year dot, it seems incumbent upon Turkey’s next leader to make sweeping changes to the way the country and economy is run.

But for sure, as campaigning comes to an end and the next episode of Turkey’s never-ending saga begins, life has never been less dull.