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Shireen Hunter: IAEA's resolution against Iran not lead to reactivation of snap back

Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that western powers don't want a war with Iran, but they feel that they must do something to pressure Tehran. mechanism.
کد خبر: ۱۲۴۴۳۳۹
تاریخ انتشار: ۰۵ تير ۱۴۰۳ - ۰۰:۰۸ 25 June 2024

TABNAK –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that western powers don't want a war with Iran, but they feel that they must do something to pressure Tehran. mechanism.

She adds that “The IAEA's resolution need not necessarily lead to the reactivation of the snap back.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: It seems that the recent resolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency lays the groundwork for the next actions of the E3 and the U.S. against Iran's nuclear program. In the sense that it is the basis for snapback activation. What is your assessment?

A: The recent resolution of the IAEA reflects the Western powers' unhappiness with Iran's overall; international behavior and not just its actions regarding its nuclear program.  Paramount among reasons for the West's unhappiness with Iran is Tehran's support for Russia in its war with Ukraine, its support for Hamas and the Houthis Yemen, who have been harassing international shipping. At least at the moment, Western powers don't want a war with Iran, but they feel that they must do something to pressure Tehran. The IAEA's resolution should be seen in this light. However, the resolution need not necessarily lead to the reactivation of the snap back mechanism.

Q: If Biden wins the US election, will he sign a new agreement with Iran?

A: I doubt that, if reelected, Joe Biden would adopt a more lenient policy towards Iran or sign a new agreement with Tehran.  Biden's advisers, like Blinken and Sullivan, have hardline positions on Iran. Biden would also be under pressure from Israel's supporters to tighten the screws on Iran. Biden had four years to change US policy towards Iran and he failed to do so. There is no reason to think that he would alter course if reelected. Washington will continue to pressure Iran hoping to produce political change. This is also Israel's policy and that of conservative Arabs, despite claiming to want to improve ties with Tehran.

Q: If Trump wins, what will be his approach to Iran's nuclear program?

A: Most likely, Trump, too, would follow a similar policy. However, Trump is less dependent on pro-Israel donors and groups. Therefore, there is a slight chance that, under certain conditions, he might be willing to cut a deal with Tehran. However, for this to happen, Iran must make fundamental changes in its policies, especially regarding the Middle East. Such a change, however, is unlikely no matter who wins in the presidential elections. The experiences of three moderate presidents--Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Rouhani have shown that on these basic issues, presidents have little power.

Q: Some argue that the sale of oil by the government of Ebrahim Raisi is the result of an understanding between Iran and America and with the green light of the Biden government, and if Trump comes to power, it will prevent the sale of Iranian oil. However, Iran's officials believe that oil sales have nothing to do with Biden's government, and Iran's oil sales will continue even with Trump's presence. What is your assessment?

A: Biden allowed the sale of more Iranian oil not as a favor to Tehran. Rather, this was done to counter the fall in Russian exports following the Ukraine war.

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