Don't Let the World Cup and North Korea Distract You From Brexit

International attention will be focused on the U.S.-North Korea summit and the kickoff of the World Cup in Russia, but keep a watchful eye on the U.K. for what promises to be another messy week in Brexitland.

Prime Minister Theresa May returned from a bruising Group of Seven meeting in Canada to more drama back home in London.

Given how many domestic crises she’s survived, it would be imprudent to predict May’s downfall -- but things could change quickly, with repercussions on Brexit policy, which has been moving slowly but surely toward an ever-softening of positions vis-a-vis the European Union that frustrates those in May’s Conservative Party who ardently want a clean break.

It feels like it. Last week, the pro-Brexit wing of May’s government was causing her trouble again, with Brexit Secretary David Davis threatening to resign and a leaked tape of Boris Johnson being candid.

This week, danger presents itself on multiple fronts with the return of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill to the House of Commons on June 12 -- the same day Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un are due to meet in Singapore.

Tories keen to stay close to the EU will be tempted to vote against the government in 15 amendments introduced in the Europhile-dominated House of Lords. Many of these lawmakers, however, don’t want to destabilize May for fear the hardliners could take over.

At the same time, the hardliners are getting more openly critical of May’s strategy. One of them is Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen, who wrote in the Mail on Sunday that he was losing patience with what looked like a drift toward keeping Britain in the EU’s orbit. He said May’s fate might be decided in the next few days. Separately, the Sunday Times reported that so-called Brexiteers could try to oust May as soon as next month.

On Monday night, May will address lawmakers in the so-called backbenches -- they’re in Parliament but not in government, and as such tend to display an independent streak. According to the Telegraph, she’ll urge them not to betray her and “send a message to the country.”

Such deadlines have come and gone before, and May has stayed on her precarious perch. She even got some hope on Sunday from an unexpected quarter. Grant Shapps, a former party chairman who tried to push her out last October, said he could see her leading the Tories into the next election.

Until now, the problem has been that the Conservatives couldn’t agree who would replace her, or were scared that her removal could precipitate a snap election and potentially place opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in power. This second reason has come under attack of late.

It’s possible, too, that if the Brexiteers feel she’s betrayed them, they’ll simply take their revenge and let the future take care of itself.

Meanwhile, trouble has come up on another front.

Arron Banks, a driving force behind Brexit -- he was co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign -- told the Sunday Times he’d met Russia’s ambassador to Britain on two occasions beyond the single session he’d previously disclosed. One meeting was in November 2016, three days after he’d met newly-elected U.S. President Donald Trump.

Banks was dismissive. “I had two boozy lunches with the Russian ambassador and another cup of tea with him,” he told the Sunday Times. “Bite me. It’s a convenient political witch-hunt, both over Brexit and Trump.”

Nevertheless it’s awkward for May, who regularly accuses Russia of meddling in foreign elections but never includes the June 2016 Brexit referendum in the list. It’s also bad timing ahead of the votes on the Withdrawal Bill.

“Today’s papers highlight the role of Russia in undermining our democracies and national security, and make the case for strong future ties with the EU,” tweeted Sarah Wollaston, a Tory lawmaker and potential rebel.

May’s strategy of delaying decisions and splitting the difference between warring sides of her party is keeping her in her job, but it’s making it impossible for officials to prepare for Brexit, according to the Institute for Government.

In a report into levels of preparedness published on Sunday, the independent think-tank describes how a desire to “avoid domestic political embarrassment” is preventing the government from sharing -- even internally -- its analyses of different aspects of Brexit. That’s hampering efforts to make plans, as are the different views of different ministers about what the government’s priorities should be.

The main opposition isn’t standing idle; it has been tactically adjusting its stance on Brexit. Labour Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer was explicit that the party, which a year ago ruled out membership of the EU’s single market, now wants “a single market deal.” He said he would want to negotiate with the EU to see how flexible it would be on the free movement of people.

The opposition has its own divisions to contend with, though. For many Labour lawmakers, this isn’t enough, and the party is likely to see a sizable rebellion from those who want Britain to stay inside the European Economic Area.

Labour has also made a habit of rolling out the kind of eye-catching, voter-friendly policy proposals that helped the party make gains in last year’s election. The latest is from Corbyn, who said a Labour government would legislate to ensure that restaurant wait staff could keep all of their tips.

Announcing it now is a sign that Labour thinks the next election could occur much sooner than 2022, and a reminder to May’s Conservatives that, while they’re arguing about Brexit, they risk losing voters’ attention, and support.