TABNAK reached out to Mark Fitzpatrick, who was Executive Director of the IISS Americas office and head of the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme untile 2019 to shed more light on on the recent developments around the US-Israeli aggression on Iran.
Following is the full text of the interview:
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, traveled to Pakistan carrying Iran's response to America. This trip comes as U.S president Donald Trump has extended an indefinite ceasefire. What is your assessment of this trip, and could it pave the way for an agreement?
Sorry to say, I see little basis for a meaningful, lasting agreement. Even before President Trump decided not to send envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, the outlook was poor. Neither side seemed to be prepared to make the compromises that would be necessary to resolve the many issues at play. Now that Witkoff and Kushner are staying home, not to mention Vice President J.D. Vance being kept out of this round from the beginning, diplomacy seems stuck for the time being. But both sides realize that they need to keep trying.
It seems this trip could set the stage for a meeting between senior Iranian and American officials if an initial agreement is reached. If an agreement is reached, would it be a framework for achieving a comprehensive deal?
I see no possibility of a reaching a comprehensive agreement. The only kind of agreement that seems possible is a limited deal to open the Strait of Hormuz while ending the US blockade. If that could be achieved, then the economic pressure on both sides would be ameliorated and the end of the war could be within sight, leaving the other issues unresolved.
Araghchi will also traveled to Oman and Russia after this trip. What is the purpose of visiting these two countries?
Iran is in a lonely diplomatic space. It has alienated most of its Arab neighbors and it cannot count on Russia and China to provide much more than rhetorical support. So, Foreign Minister Araghchi must do what he can to improve relationships, starting with Oman and Russia. I doubt, though, that his trips will do very much to improve Iran’s position.
Some Israeli sources claim that if no agreement is reached, the United States might launch another intense and short-term war against Iran and end it unilaterally. The approach of the aircraft carrier 'George H.W. Bush' to the area covered by CENTCOM and other US military actions in the region has fueled this speculation. Is this a strategy for Trump to declare victory in the war?
President Trump hopes that bringing a third aircraft carrier to the region will put more pressure on Iran. I think this is the main reason for the deployment. Another short and intense bombing campaign is also possible, although US public opinion wants the war to end without more death and destruction. In any case, Trump has already declared a military victory, even though this is a false claim as long as Iran controls the Hormuz Strait. He needs a strategy that will open the Strait, which is only achievable through diplomacy.
The United States has not achieved its pre-war declared objectives, such as destroying Iran's missile program, destroying Iran's nuclear program, and “regime change.” This means it has become clear that these objectives are not achievable for the United States through a military campaign. To what extent does this convince Trump to refrain from another attack and look more seriously at diplomacy?
President Trump may not agree with the basis of your question. His advisers could argue that that Iran’s missile capabilities have been significantly degraded, albeit not eliminated, that Iran has no ability today to enrich uranium and that its leadership has changed. So, he does not necessarily draw the conclusion that military action cannot achieve his goals. On the other hand, he does want to try diplomacy; he just does not know how to make diplomacy work. I therefore expect the Islamabad talks to continue, even though the results are likely to be meager.
