TABNAK reached ot to Marc Finaud a senior advisor and associate fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and former French Foreign Ministry spoksman to talk recent US military buildup in the region and its threats against Iran.
Fowing is the full text of the interview:
The USS Abraham Lincoln has entered the Pacific Ocean and the CENTCOM area of responsibility. This ship has approached the region following Trump's recent threats against Iran. What is the purpose of deploying this ship? Military operation or putting pressure and threat?
With Trump, everything is possible as we have seen before the 12-day war and the offer of negotiations that didn't stop the military operations. It can be a form of gesticulation to pressure Iran, or an actual preparation for military operations. If the US doesn't obtain what it is seeking (regime change?), it may decide to launch strikes.
US President Donald Trump has announced that diplomacy is still an option. On the other hand, the US conditions for negotiation with Iran are: 1- removing all enriched uranium from Iran, 2- setting a limitation on Iran's long-range missile stockpiles, 3- changing Iran's policy in supporting proxy forces in the region, and 4- banning Iran's independent uranium enrichment. In such an environment, how likely is diplomacy to succeed?
Those demands have been constant since the beginning of the nuclear talks in 2003 on the part of the neoconservative factions in the US, eventually supported by Trump after his re-election. It is well known that they are not negotiable for Iran and would be equivalent to capitulation. It is foolish to even think that the current Iranian government could accept such demands.
If an attack is carried out on Iran, Iran will also respond militarily and has announced that US bases and ships, as well as Israel, will be legitimate targets. Some argue that the attack may be staged. This could mean that the US is planning to launch an attack and pressure Iran into a deal. And this trend will continue. What is your assessment of this trend? Is it not possible that Iran's reaction will result in an all-out war in the first stage?
This is of course a major risk. Previously, Iran tried to calibrate its response to Israeli and US attacks, which avoided massive casualties and damage and facilitated the ceasefire. It is believed now that, if the Iranian authorities realize that the purpose of the US strikes is decapitation and regime change, they may pursue a more aggressive response that would lead to an uncontrollable escalation.
Some argue that, given the nature of the new world order and the large-scale projects such as India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and other projects that the United States is pursuing in the region, the United States cannot cope with the current Iran and is trying to resolve Iran problem. That is, as in the past, policies such as “Dual containment”, creating a balance against Iran, etc. cannot be used to move things forward, and Iran problem must be resolved. What is your assessment?
Economic and trade ambitions do play a major role in the US Middle East policy. Even if the US is no longer dependent on oil and gas from the region, as a net exporter, it still wants to control the world energy market. A stronger form of resistance on the part of the BRICS Plus countries makes this ambition more difficult to fulfil. However, it is unlikely that the Trump policy will be supported by all regional states, including the GCC countries, that fear the instability and the chaos that such an offensive could unleash.
If the United States wants to make a deal with Iran, will Israel try to ruin America's game or can a political agreement also satisfy Israel's wishes?
Of course Israel has always pushed for the weakening of Iran or even regime change. If Trump was seriously considering a mutually beneficial deal with Iran (closer to the JCPOA), Israel would dislike it but it would be difficult for Israel to oppose the Trump administration in negotiating such a deal upfront. It could just continue its secret war against Iran and torpedo any agreement.
