The Notre Dame wildfire that can’t be put out

The fire at Notre Dame has been out for days. But a secondary blaze of conspiracy theories, apocalyptic visions and political fervor is harder to extinguish, and is set to widen France's cultural divides.

کد خبر: ۸۹۳۸۷۶

تاریخ: ۰۳ ارديبهشت ۱۳۹۸ - ۰۸:۵۰

It started on the morning of April 16, when most of Europe woke up with huge relief to discover that the Notre Dame cathedral was still standing.

But Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, a former presidential running mate of Marine Le Pen, did not look relieved, nor was he satisfied with official explanations of how the fire had broken out. Standing in front of the still-smoldering monument, he demanded on live TV to know whether the fire had been accidental, as police had said, or the result of an "attack."

It seemed he had already made up his mind.

“When you’re on the other side [of the cathedral] ... you feel as if you’re in a war zone,” Dupont-Aignan, whose political movement is called "Stand Up, France," told the 24-hour news network BFMTV.

As France debates how to rebuild the cathedral, this sort of conspiracy talk is set to gather pace, not abate.

It didn't matter that the Paris prosecutor's office had said, the previous evening, that there was nothing to suggest "a deliberate act," and that no criminal investigation had been opened. Dupont-Aignan was determined to air his misgivings, and he continued to do so over the following days on several TV stations where he repeatedly demanded the opening of a criminal investigation.

On Fox News, a little-known elected official from the wealthy Paris suburb of Neuilly was spinning a similar line to the English-speaking world.

Philippe Karsenty, who sits on the suburb's municipal council, told the conservative news network that people wanted to know what had really caused the fire, and that they would not believe any “politically correct” narrative — until host Shepard Smith zapped him off the air and advised viewers to disregard his segment.

Le Pen, the doyen of French far-right politicians, did not go as far as her former running mate in sowing doubt about Notre Dame. She didn't have to.

On social media, an army of far-right activists backed up by alternative media sites has been working hard to undermine the case of an accidental fire, based mostly on a brief France 2 TV news clip — since recanted — that suggested there may have been two fires going at once under the cathedral's lead roof.

On Discord, the video-game platform favored by alt-right activists, the talk was darker still. Participants in the QEurope discussion forum — the newly established continental version of the QAnon conspiracy craze — quickly dubbed the fire a "European 9/11," taking it as a matter of course that the mainstream media was peddling lies about the origin of the blaze.

"The MSM narrative reminds me of 911," posted Belliferous (USA), using an abbreviation for mainstream media. "All their lies ... but they’re not going to get away with this."

To back up their arguments, many reposted a video clip from a French TV talk show in which a former architect of historical monuments voiced his doubts about the official accounts. The 13th-century wooden beams that held up the lead roof, and which required twice-daily checks by a fireman permanently posted on site, would have been "too old" to catch fire so quickly, argued the architect.

In the coming months, as France debates how to rebuild the cathedral, this sort of conspiracy talk is set to gather pace, not abate.

One reason is the nature of the investigation itself, which is unlikely to provide any conclusive explanation for the blaze in the near term, or perhaps ever.

Investigators were quick to point out that the probe would be "difficult," a "brain teaser" made trickier by the fact that much of the evidence would have burned, and the location of the original fire was not captured by video surveillance. Some 50 investigators are reviewing evidence that includes dozens of witness interviews and footage of any video recorded in and around Notre Dame when the fire broke out.

Another reason the conspiracy theories are unlikely to dwindle is the nature of social media and discussion platforms today. While Facebook, Twitter and YouTube have all signed on to a European disinformation "code of practice," it was easy to find examples of speculation and conspiracy-mongering on all three platforms a week after the fire. On platforms like Discord, where some discussion channels are invite-only, the only limit to the conspiracy-fest is the participants' imaginations.

Among France's apocalyptic prophets, there is little need for, or interest in, firm facts.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the idea that the fire was started by an arsonist or terrorist — despite the lack of any supporting evidence — feeds into a broader political narrative pushed by the likes of Dupont-Aignan, Karsenty and some members of the Yellow Jacket protest movement.

Such a scenario, coupled with the implicit suggestion of a cover-up by President Emmanuel Macron's administration, fits with a vision of white, Catholic France under attack by dark forces — one in which the Notre Dame fire could easily take its place as a defining moment, unmoored from any proof or evidence.

Among France's apocalyptic prophets, there is little need for, or interest in, firm facts. And yet their declinist vision of the country — perhaps best rendered by Éric Zemmour's polemic bestseller "Le Suicide Français" ("The French Suicide") — is fast becoming mainstream on the French right.

Le Pen has largely scrapped her anti-euro rhetoric in favor of French nativism, a defense of "Christian values" and opposition to immigration.

Her niece, Marion Maréchal — pegged as the heir apparent to the Le Pen dynasty and a possible presidential contender in 2022 — is a proponent of the "Great Replacement" theory embraced by the man accused of the Christchurch killings in New Zealand. The theory that France's white population is being supplanted by Muslim immigrants has been dismissed by academic scholars, who say it is based on distorted statistics.

For true believers, the fire can be linked to cultural heritage being neglected due to lack of funds.

Les Républicains, the conservative party of former President Nicolas Sarkozy, has not embraced such ideas. But it has taken a rightward lurch, choosing François-Xavier Bellamy, a 33-year-old Catholic hardliner who is publicly opposed to abortion, as its lead candidate for the European Parliament election.

Of all the luminaries named above, only Dupont-Aignan — whose party's base of support is in the mid-single digits, according to a poll — pronounced the word "attack" on TV.

But whether it is seen as an attack or simply as a symbol of a traditional France in dramatic decline, the Notre Dame fire fits with a certain worldview.

For true believers, the fire can be linked to cultural heritage being neglected due to lack of funds, the threat of a modernist renovation or the hint of a criminal act. The underlying fervor is the same.

And it's spreading.