Turkey, EU could get fresh start after June 24 elections

Turkey will hold early elections on June 24. On election day, millions of voters will cast their votes for the presidency and Parliament. Although six presidential candidates joined this year's race, the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been in power for 16 years, is the obvious frontrunner.

کد خبر: ۸۰۳۲۷۸

تاریخ: ۰۷ خرداد ۱۳۹۷ - ۰۹:۰۶

According to opinion polls, President Erdoğan will win in the first round, unless something extraordinary happens at the very last minute. In the parliamentary elections, the People's Alliance, comprised of the AK Party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is competing against the Nation Alliance, which features the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Felicity Party (SP), the Democrat Party (DP) and the Good Party (İP). The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), in turn, is competing alone.

It remains to be seen how parliamentary seats will be distributed in Turkey's first election since it adopted a new system of government on April 16, 2017. Regardless of the outcome, there is no doubt that the Parliament will be quite colorful over the next couple of years. Parliament, which was comprised of representatives from four major political parties last term, will include new voices thanks to the changes made under the presidential system.

Pollsters indicate that the two alliances will be in the next Parliament for sure – which means that at least six political parties will be represented in the national legislature. If the HDP successfully clears the 10-percent threshold, that number will climb to seven. This is a kind of diversity that Turkey has not witnessed for a long time.Having described the general framework, let us cut to the chase and talk about Turkey's post-June 24 foreign policy preferences. There is much information about this issue in President Erdoğan's manifesto and election statement. Accordingly, Turkey focuses on a handful of foreign policy issues.

The most recent developments in the Middle East and their effects on Turkey are obviously a priority. It is possible to divide those developments into three categories: First, there is Syria. Ankara wants to end the violence in Syria by forming an interim government to facilitate its transition to democracy, protect the country's territorial integrity and remove all terrorist groups, including the PKK, from Syria.

In this regard, Turkey has been working together with Russia and Iran as part of the Astana process and continues its operations against PKK militants in Syria. At the same time, the country remains committed to its "open door policy" for refugees and its humanitarian efforts.

Although Ankara experiences tension with the United States due to Washington's actions in northern Syria, which hurt Turkish interests, the Turks are trying to repair the bilateral relationship. The second item on Turkey's Middle East agenda relates to Israel. The negative side effects of Tel Aviv's actions in the region cause concern in the Turkish capital. Thirdly, the Turks are closely monitoring tensions between Iran and certain Gulf states. They maintain that countries in the Middle East must refrain from fueling sectarian tensions at all costs.

Turkey-Russia relations are another important topic in Turkish foreign policy. Right now, the bilateral relationship extends from defense to economic cooperation and other strategic issues. To be clear, Ankara wants to continue its close cooperation with Moscow.

Last but not least, yet another obvious question relates to Turkey-U.S. relations, which have been strained due to the most recent developments in Syria and Jerusalem. Provided that U.S. President Donald Trump alienated a significant part of the world, including the European Union, with his policy decisions, the current tensions between Washington and Ankara are hardly surprising.

Keeping in mind all of the above, Turkey's relations with the European Union will gain additional importance in the aftermath of the June 24 elections. After all, global developments compel both sides to work more closely together: Washington's newfound unilateralism puts the EU in a difficult position. A recent decision by the Trump administration to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal was a case in point. As the U.S. prepares to impose additional sanctions on Iran, it warns that European countries would pay the price for violations. Again, Donald Trump's controversial Jerusalem move paved the way to a new wave of violence in the Middle East – which rang alarm bells in Europe. At the same time, U.S. sanctions on Russia could potentially hurt the interests of EU countries, including but not limited to Germany. Indeed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's admission that Europe could no longer rely on the United States for protection echoed the sentiments of many European nations.

To summarize, Washington's unilateralism pushes it away from other parts of the Western alliance and compels the European Union to go its own way. This trend will force Ankara and Brussels to work more closely together. The Turks clearly are aware of this fact – which is why President Erdoğan recently reiterated that joining the European Union was still a strategic goal for Turkey. Behind closed doors, Turkish officials say they see signs that Berlin, in particular, is becoming more aware of its aligning interests with Turkey.