What Brussels thinks of Italy’s election

When Jean-Claude Juncker offered his opinion on the Italian election, he was criticized for speaking out of turn — but he was also saying what many others thought but didn’t dare say.

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تاریخ: ۱۲ اسفند ۱۳۹۶ - ۱۰:۰۶

Last week, the European Commission president warned that the EU should be prepared for the “worst scenario” of “no operational government” in Italy after Sunday’s election. He also spoke of fears about the impact on financial markets (although he later backtracked after, ironically, his own statement was blamed for moving the markets).

What Juncker said “was not meant to be said in public,” according to an EU official with close knowledge of the matter who didn’t want to be named.

But fears of “no operational government,” as Juncker put it, are widespread in Brussels.

“I just don’t know how long the patience of financial markets will last,” said a diplomat from Northern Europe. “In the Netherlands or in Germany [coalition] talks have lasted a long time, but they don’t have that debt,” he added, referring to the Italian public debt of €2.2 trillion, the biggest in the EU.

“We’re used to having populists in government, that’s not the danger” — Diplomat from a Central European EU country

Polls indicate that the eurozone’s third largest economy is facing a hung parliament or perhaps a right-leaning government with a wafer-thin majority. But such instability would hardly be a new phenomenon. A former judge at the Constitutional Court of Italy, Sabino Cassese, has calculated that since the country was unified it has had 127 government in 153 years: take out the almost 20 years under a fascist regime with no elections and that means almost one government a year.

As far as current Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni is concerned, Brussels’ main fear is a coalition of three-time former PM Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right and his far-right allies in the Northern League and the Brothers of Italy.

“The alarm I have perceived is on the possibility that in one of the large European countries, moderate right and anti-europeans are allied. It would not occur between Macron and Le Pen or between Merkel and the AfD [Alternative for Germany],” he said in an interview Thursday.

“My major fear is that [Northern League leader Matteo] Salvini could become prime minister, but that’s not going to happen, right?” asked a diplomat from one of the larger EU countries, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Supporters of the anti-establishment 5Star Movement wear masks of former Italian prime ministers Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Renzi | Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images

Something similar could happen. The Berlusconi-led coalition is ahead in the polls and may just get over the threshold to form a government. Berlusconi can’t be PM because of a conviction for tax fraud and on Friday his old ally Antonio Tajani, president of the European Parliament, announced he had accepted Berlusconi’s proposal to be Forza Italia’s prime ministerial candidate.

But Berlusconi’s party and the Northern League are close in the polls, meaning Berlusconi’s ability to rein in the extremists could be limited. If the Northern League gets the most votes within the center-right coalition, Tajani would end up like his predecessor Martin Schulz, who also left the presidency of the European Parliament to lose an election back home.

However, EU officials admit that they are not as worried as they were when a Marine Len Pen victory in France was a possibility.

“I don’t see around the same degree of concern,” said an EU official. That could be because a government of any kind wouldn’t be overwhelmingly anti-European, even a coalition that contained the Northern League or the anti-establishment 5Star Movement.

“We’re used to having populists in government, that’s not the danger,” said a diplomat from a Central European EU country. “The danger is to have a government that doesn’t work and holds all of us back.”

“We need a functional government, otherwise discussions on the MFF [the long-term EU budget] or Dublin [the EU’s asylum policy] could become much more complicated,” said another diplomat from Eastern Europe.

Another worry for the EU is that a vocal supporter of a Berlusconi’s victory is Victor Orbán.

Jens Geier, a German Social Democrat MEP, took the same line. “The anti-EU stances of some of the parties have softened,” he said, adding that “the anti-EU, right-wing populists are not so famous anymore.”

Someone who is famous is Berlusconi. He may have taken a softer line on Europe but the 81-year-old is still divisive. His ban on public office ends in 2019, so he could well be back around the European Council table.

“I wouldn’t like to see him back, and not just because of bunga bunga but especially because of his very low reliability,” said a diplomat from one of the founding EU members. “However if that’s the price to pay for stability, I presume that’s OK,” she added.

Yet another worry for the EU is that a vocal supporter of a Berlusconi’s victory is Victor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister and thorn in Brussels’ side.

“We are waiting for the Italian elections, during which Silvio Berlusconi can again occupy the government position,” Orbán said last week.