Prospective shift in Saudi-Russian relations taking shape

Russia has given a hearty red carpet welcome to King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz with Arabic and Russian greeting phrases on numerous billboards lining the road from Vnukovo International Airport to the center of Moscow, signaling the historic nature of the first king-level visit in the history of relations between the two countries.

کد خبر: ۷۳۸۶۹۷

تاریخ: ۲۳ مهر ۱۳۹۶ - ۰۸:۳۴

The visit is not limited to its unprecedented royal character, nor can it be reduced to the billions-dollar deals struck in the visit's context, but it is exceptional due to the internationally anticipated "shift" it reflects in the two countries' relations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made ambiguous comments on the future of the U.S.-Saudi partnership to an energy forum in Moscow on Wednesday, prior to the four-day visit, in which he asked whether there really is anything in the world that is absolutely permanent.

This would raise eyebrows among all political analysts, from Washington to Tehran, including the countries affected by the changes in the international and regional scene, regarding the 70-year-old alliance between Washington and Riyadh.

It also signals that Moscow and Riyadh are likely to get over their divergences dating back to the Afghani war of the 1980s and the Chechen conflict in the 1990s up to the Syria and Libya more recently.

A quick trip back in the memory of the Russian-Saudi relationship seems sufficient enough to indicate the nature of the shift crowned by King Salman's visit. It started in 1938, when the Soviet diplomatic mission in Jeddah was closed and divergences in regional policies between the two sides emerged, with Saudi Arabia seeking alignment with the United States in the early oil era.

During the Cold War, Saudi Arabia, together with the CIA, backed the "Jihad against Soviet Communism" in Afghanistan, and later the Wahhabi kingdom was a source of the radical ideology that invaded Chechnya and some Central Asian republics, and even was the financier of the jihad wars which targeted Russia in that period.

The first serious thaws between Moscow and Riyadh, the world's two largest oil exporters, was in 2007, when Vladimir Putin was King Abdullah's guest on a first official visit for a Russian leader to the Kingdom. It was not long until both parties stood at variance over the heated conflicts in the Middle East and the Arab Spring especially in Syria, or even when Russia chose to partner with the nuclear ready Iran, counter to the Saudi hysteria and escalation against its Shiite foe.

However, the objective factors of the continued Russian-Saudi economic cooperation have made the two parties incapable of acting out the option of rupture, with both of them sharing interests in efforts to curb oil supplies and maintain stability of the oil markets.

By leaving the doors open for a prospective geopolitically strategic partnership with Russia, Saudi Arabia seeks protection against the storms of regional and international variables, if the balance of power stabilized in the form the master of the Kremlin desires.

Saudi Arabia, the biggest buyer of U.S. arms, felt it was betrayed by Washington's development of its shale sources at the expense of dropping oil prices and by the U.S.'s siding with the "nuclear peace" option with Tehran at the expense of its historical ally in the Middle East.

Riyadh probably realizes that unlike the U.S., Russia can play an important mediating role to reign in Iran and contain its influence in Syria, where Riyadh-backed rebels have failed and military efforts to topple President Bashar al-Assad have become futile, and in Yemen where Saudi Arabia is starting to consider rolling back from its unsuccessful and excessively costly military adventure.

Internally speaking, the transfer of the Saudi family throne from the king to the crown prince seems a matter of short time, which requires search for guarantees for the young prince, whose training on governing has so far been unsuccessful, as evidenced by the frustrations of the Yemeni war and the setbacks of the Syrian crisis.

In addition, the billions of dollars' worth of joint investment deals resulting from the visit, including buying Russia's S-400 air defense systems and cutting edge technologies and agreeing on infrastructure and energy projects, could be another reassurance to King Salman, who wants to fortify the crown prince's economic program, known as Saudi Arabia 2030, by finding a reliable economic partner.

Despite all that was mentioned above, one cannot be certain that the shift would be automatic as Riyadh's alignment options are still in the American orbit - as evidenced by the US$110 billion deal to sell weapons to Riyadh announced in May, and its differences with Moscow over regional issues are not that easy to be solved with a royal visit.

However, there is a rule that seems to govern cross-border relations based on Putin's statement that "everything's changing in the world."