Trump warms up in friendly Poland ahead of G20 talks with critics

US President Donald Trump is arriving on July 5 in one of the few European countries that cheered his victory and sees eye to eye with the former businessman and TV personality on a number of issues.

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Were it to take place under any other Polish government in recent years, Trump’s visit would offer a fascinating contrast between a populist at the helm of a superpower and the poster child of democracy that Poland once was. When he arrives on the evening of June 5, however, Trump will feel at home ahead of the much less friendly gathering of the G20 group in Germany later this week, where he will face critics like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Trump will deliver a "major speech” – his first in Europe - on July 6 in Warsaw, which in just over two years of the Law and Justice (PiS) administration has tarnished its relations with the European Union. The list of flashpoints between Warsaw and Brussels include refugees, the rule of law, climate policy and the media – themes on which Trump has also proved to have views that oppose the democratic mainstream.

Just as Trump is seeking a diplomatic success in Warsaw, Poland also needs one. The timing of the visit is no coincidence. Trump will take part in a summit of the so-called Three Seas Initiative, Poland’s plan to bolster trade and investment (the latter possibly from US companies) in Eastern Europe. The Three Seas refer to the Adriatic, the Baltic and the Black Sea, and the initiative comprises 12 countries from the region.

Launched in 2016, it also seems aimed at tightening relationships among countries from the region to form a counterbalance to the EU, which Warsaw paints as overly elitist, bureaucratic and too soft on Muslim immigrants. On the other hand, by leading the initiative, Warsaw seeks to build an anti-Russian bloc of states concerned with Moscow’s renewed geopolitical ambitions.

Poland and other countries of the region are therefore eagerly awaiting assurances from Trump on the unity of Nato. While in Brussels earlier this year, Trump chose not to mention the importance of the alliance’s Article 5 which stipulates that "an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies”, and instead lambasted some Nato members for not spending enough on defence.

While Poland does meet the Nato-recommended target of 2% of GDP spent on defence and has recently welcomed Nato-mandated US troops on its soil, Trump’s apparently shaky position on Nato is not to Warsaw’s liking.

That said, the Three Seas project’s ambition to bring together the eastern part of the EU is raising eyebrows in Trump-sceptic Brussels. "One cannot but feel a bit suspicious if it isn't an attempt to break up European unity," an EU diplomat told Reuters about the Three Seas Initiative.

Poland, however, says the initiative is a way to hedge against betting the country’s future solely on the EU. "Seeking solutions and strategies in case the situation in the EU worsens is normal,” Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski told PAP on June 30. He went on to attack the leading EU countries for fostering divisions themselves.

"It is not us meeting in Versailles to talk about a multi-speed Europe,” Waszczykowski said, referring to the meeting of Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in early March, during which Chancellor Merkel called on the bloc to come to terms with the fact that "some countries will go faster than others”.

Energy on the agenda

Trump is also expected to talk energy cooperation with Poland and other countries from the region, especially in terms of natural gas supplies. The US has abundant gas resources, an effect of perfecting production of shale gas, and is seeking markets to sell. Trump also considers liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports instrumental in improving the US trade balance and providing a growth stimulus for the economy.

Washington’s search for markets worldwide could be a perfect match for Poland and CEE. Many East European countries are concerned with Russia’s plans to circumvent the region with Nord Stream 2, a direct gas link between Russia and Germany. Poland in particular has been taking steps to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, having secured a long-term gas supply contract with Qatar and, more recently, purchasing its first LNG from the US company Chenier Energy.

"We are very keen for energy cooperation with the US. Supplies from Russia are uncertain because they could come under political pressure. The value of a gas contract with the US is in its political stability,” Waszczykowski told PAP.

"As a market, Poland is too small [for US LNG] but with other countries of the region, it is worth going for. Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania or Croatia could all be recipients of US LNG,” he added.

The agenda of Trump’s visit to Warsaw confirms Poland’s expectations of the core message of the controversial president.

"In Poland, the president will meet with President Duda, the leader of a staunch Nato ally and of a nation that remains one of America’s closest friends. He will speak to 12 Central European, Baltic and Western Balkan leaders at the Three Seas conference. His remarks will focus on infrastructure development and energy security, highlighting, for instance, the first shipments of American LNG into Poland earlier this month,” Trump’s national security advisor General Herbert "H. R.” McMaster said during a White House press briefing on June 29.

"[Trump will] call on all nations to take inspiration from the spirit of the Poles as we confront today’s challenges. He will lay out a vision, not only for America’s future relationship with Europe, but the future of our transatlantic alliance and what that means for American security and American prosperity,” McMaster added.

Trump is, however, known to not always go by the book. His vision will not be clear until he actually delivers his speech on Krasinskich square in Warsaw, right in front of the monument of the 1944 uprising that tried in vain to liberate the city from the Nazis. Trump also risks giving fuel to accusations that Poland is looking to weaken EU unity if he is too enthusiastic about the Three Seas project. Some of the CEE countries are not seen as too keen on the initiative that could alienate them from EU heavyweights, especially if it becomes too much of a Polish project to lead the region.