General Election 2017 key target seats: How Theresa May could take 58 Brexit-backing Labour seats

The Conservatives are likely to gain around 58 seats in Labour's North and Midlands heartlands due to the Brexit effect in the upcoming snap election on June 8.

کد خبر: ۶۸۷۰۹۱

تاریخ: ۰۲ ارديبهشت ۱۳۹۶ - ۱۱:۴۲

The Conservative Home website claimed that the Tories are seeking to target Labour seats with majorities of more than 8,000 votes as Theresa May seeks to capitalise on her party’s strong poll numbers.

An analysis of the 2015 General Election results by The Telegraph has shown that this would mainly affect seats in the North and the Midlands - areas which voted strongly for Brexit last June.

This would be a huge blow to Jeremy Corbyn's party and would mean that several Labour frontbenchers would lose their seats in parliament.

If Theresa May does succeed in claiming all 58 Labour seats that voted Brexit and had a Labour majority of less than 9,000, she would be granted with a Parliamentary working majority of more than 100.
Brexit will be the defining factor

The Conservatives are currently polling at around 43 per cent, according to the latest average - 16 points clear of Labour on 27 per cent.

This would constitute a swing of 4.5 per cent compared with the 2015 election results.

But applying this swing uniformly across the country does not take into account the role played by Brexit, an issue that has split the country down the middle and continues to dominate the agenda.

Leave-voting Labour constituencies are likely to swing harder towards the Conservatives than the national swing suggests.

This was seen in Theresa May's shock victory in the Copeland by-election. The Leave-voting area swung by more than six per cent to the Conservatives after being in Labour hands for the entirety of its previous existence.

At the same time, constituencies where people voted to Remain in the EU are less likely to swing towards the Conservatives, given that Theresa May has so far been pursuing a hard Brexit. This could result in increased Lib Dem or Labour vote share in some areas.

Taking Brexit into account, the loss of 58 Brexit-leaning Labour constituencies would grant Theresa May a working majority of 133 seats -  116 more than her current total of 17.
Which Brexit seats could the Conservatives gain?

There are 58 Labour-held seats where the Conservatives are fewer than 9,000 votes behind and where the constituents voted Leave in the EU referendum last June.

Of these 58 seats, 37 are located in the Midlands or in the North of England while a further seven are in Wales.

The seat with the narrowest Labour majority is Halifax where the Conservatives finished just 428 votes behind Labour in the 2015 General Election. This seat is particularly vulnerable due to the fact that Halifax voted to Leave the EU by 60 per cent to 40 per cent.

Labour shadow ministers are among the potential casualties, with Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Sue Hayman, and Shadow Minister for Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs, Cat Smith, likely to lose their north-western constituencies.

Mary Creagh, who contended the Labour leadership race which led to Jeremy Corbyn being elected, is also vulnerable, with a 2,613 majority in her Brexit-leaning Wakefield constituency. 62 per cent of her constituents voted to leave the EU in the referendum, while she abstained in the Parliamentary vote to trigger Article 50.

But which Remain-backing seats could the Tories lose?

The Tories will, however, face pressure from enthusiastic EU-backing Lib Dems who will seek to re-gain seats that they lost in the 2015 General Election.

Theresa May currently holds Remain-backing Lewes with a majority of 1,083 (2.1 per cent) and Twickenham with a majority of 2,017 (3.3 per cent).

Both of these areas were taken from the Lib Dems by David Cameron in 2015. Vince Cable saw his vote share decline by 16.4 percentage points in his own constituency of Twickenham.

However, considering the fact that both of these constituencies voted Remain - Twickenham with a majority as large as 66 per cent - the Lib Dems will see an opportunity in winning over the Remainers that deserted them in the last election.

Kingston & Surbiton and Bath also voted Remain and have a Tory majority of less than 5,000, leaving them as potential targets for the Lib Dems.

Assuming Theresa May loses these four Remain-backing Tory constituencies, she could be left with a working majority of 81 seats.