Merkel challenger Schulz faces first test as tiny German state of Saarland goes to the polls

For Angela Merkel, Sunday will be a moment of truth. Martin Schulz, the man many believe could topple her after more than a decade in power, faces his first real test at the ballot box in regional elections. And if the polls are right, he is on course to win a stunning upset.

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Telegraph - For Angela Merkel, Sunday will be a moment of truth. Martin Schulz, the man many believe could topple her after more than a decade in power, faces his first real test at the ballot box in regional elections. And if the polls are right, he is on course to win a stunning upset.

The setting is Saarland, a tiny German state on the border of France that is home to just over a million people, rarely features much in national politics. But this weekend all eyes are on the state.

Prosperous, staunchly conservative, and with the highest proportion of Catholics anywhere in Germany, Saarland is a stronghold of Mrs Merkel’s centre-right Christians Democrats (CDU). The local party leader and current state prime minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, is even known as "mini-Merkel”.

Mr Schulz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) shouldn’t stand a chance here. But according to the opinion polls, when Saarland votes in elections for its state parliament and government on Sunday, the SPD is poised to seize control.

It is all down to one man. As recently as January, the SPD were a massive 12 points behind in the polls here. Then came Mr Schulz, the former European parliament president and staunch Brexit critic who was elected party leader with an unprecedented 100 per cent vote.

Since the arrival of the man they call "Sankt Martin”, the SPD has seen an astonishing turnaround in its fortunes. Written off a few months ago, it has drawn level with Mrs Merkel’s CDU in the national polls, and was even ahead for a few weeks.

In Saarland, the party has seen an extraordinary revival. Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer, Saarland’s "mini-Merkel”, described it as an "eruption”.

The latest polls put the SPD on 32 per cent in the state, just a point behind the CDU. But if it can forge an alternative coalition with its natural allies, the Left Party and the Greens, it could oust the CDU and seize control of the state.

More worryingly still for Mrs Merkel, the same "red-red-green” coalition could carry Mr Schulz to power nationally. The Saarland vote is being seen as a trial run for September’s national elections.

Although Mr Schulz is not running personally in Saarland, no one doubts this election is all about him. If Anke Rehlinger, the Saarland SPD leader, ends up state prime minister, she will owe it to him.

His face is everywhere, on election posters and T-shirts, emblazoned in the colours of the famous Barack Obama "Hope” image, above the slogan "MEGA” — for "Make Europe Great Again”.

Pitched against him is Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer, the current state prime minister, a popular local figure who is generally referred to by her initials alone: AKK. Spiegel magazine described her as "Merkel’s first line of defence against Schulz”.

But Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer has had to part company a little from the chancellor she once emulated, distancing herself from Mrs Merkel’s unpopular refugee policy.

She also waded into an international row with Turkey, announcing that Turkish ministers would not be allowed to stage political events in Saarland in a clear pitch for conservative votes — even though no Turkish government figures were planning to visit the tiny state.

The momentum appears to be with Mr Schulz. A party congress to endorse him as leader saw extraordinary scenes of euphoria in the normally staid SPD, which clearly believes it has finally found a challenger who can take Mrs Merkel on.

Mrs Merkel has said little about the challenge, preferring to be seen as getting on with the business of government. But her party has sought to protray Mr Schulz as a reckless populist.

"He just wants to create an atmosphere of discontent, so he can give people the answers", Julia Klöckner, one of the party’s deputy leaders, told German television.

"We shouldn’t talk Germany down just to run an election campaign based on fear.”

Analysts have warned that the challenge for Mr Schulz may be in sustaining his current wave of support until the national elections in six months.

"Schulz is seen at the moment as someone who doesn't come from the Berlin political establishment, and that is viewed positively,” Manfred Guellner, the head of the Forsa polling agency, said.

"Whether that is sustainable, we will have to wait and see. For many German citizens, Mrs Merkel is still a guarantor of stability and safety.”

The far-Right Alternative for Germany party (AfD), seen as the main threat to Mrs Merkel as recently as Janauary, offers a reminder of how quickly the mood can change.

Hit by scandals and in-fighting, it has dropped back to 11 per cent in the national polls, and is predicted to scrape into the Saarland parliament with only 6 per cent.