What to expect from the new round of Syria peace talks in Geneva?

Due to the continuing complexities both on the ground and in the political level, no one expects a major breakthrough from the talks.

کد خبر: ۶۷۰۶۴۴

تاریخ: ۰۵ اسفند ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۶:۴۵

Tabnak - A new round of negotiations to resolve the Syrian crisis has been started in Geneva; with the UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura once again tries to act as a mediator bridging the differences between various Syrian and international parties. However, due to the continuing complexities both on the ground and in the political level, no one expects a major breakthrough from the talks.

Like the previous rounds of the talks, the delegation of the Syrian governments is headed by Syria’s UN ambassador Bashar al-Ja’afari, while the main opposition delegation, called the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), is headed by Nasr al-Hariri, a 40-year old cardiologist, and lawyer Mohammad Sabra.

In a report earlier today, Press-TV wrote that De Mistura has played down expectations for major progress in the fourth round of Syria talks aimed at finding a political solution to the nearly six-year-old conflict in the Arab country. "Am I expecting a breakthrough? No, I am not expecting a breakthrough,” he told journalists at the UN headquarters on Wednesday.

De Mistura shuttled between the two sides during three previous rounds of Syria talks in Geneva last year. Syrian government officials and armed opposition representatives never sat down at the same table.

The intra-Syrian talks come shortly after the conclusion of the second round of Syria peace negotiations, facilitated by Russia, Turkey and Iran, in the Kazakh capital of Astana. The negotiations, which were held in a behind-closed-doors format, sought to pave the way toward political negotiations in Geneva.

In an in-depth analysis of the issue, Guardian wrote that the geopolitical landscape has been recast since De Mistura brought the warring sides together in the same Swiss city last year. Back in February 2016 there was a degree of quiet optimism in western diplomatic circles that Russia would be ready to deliver a conciliatory Syrian government delegation to the talks after Vladimir Putin’s military operation on the regime’s side.

Instead, confronted by a collapsing ceasefire and an implacable Syrian delegation unwilling to discuss any transition away from President Bashar al-Assad, De Mistura had to abandon the talks after two fruitless sessions. A bland summary of the points of agreement between the two sides, produced by De Mistura, underscored how little progress the diplomat had made.

Washington Post raises a similar point of view, noting that in this new round of the talks, the Syrian government has the upper hand, because during the last year, the developments on the ground have been conducting in government’s favorable direction.

According to the Post, the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad scored significant victories in 2016, most importantly the recapture of rebel-held eastern Aleppo. Russia and Iran launched a parallel diplomatic process along with Turkey, which has gone from being Assad's most vociferous regional opponent to finding common cause with his staunch allies. And there's a new American president who seems far less concerned with the Syrian leader's departure than his predecessor.

In such circumstances, it seems that in order for the talks to reach a minimum level of success, the opposition needs to be more flexible and especially put aside the idea of ousting Assad as a precondition for the transition period. If not, given the increasingly polarizing nature of the Syrian battlefield – between two radical terrorist and anti-terrorist factions – their room for maneuvering will become more and more limited.