Shireen Hunter: Arab states welcome erosion of Iran's presence in Lebanon

Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that Israel wants to drastically reduce Iran's influence in that country.

News ID: 5180

Date: 01 October 2024 - 12:13

TABNAK –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that Israel wants to drastically reduce Iran's influence in that country.

She adds, “Arab states would also welcome the erosion of Iran's presence in Lebanon.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: In your opinion, what were the goals of Israel's assassination of Hassan Nasrallah?

A: Israel 's objectives from attacking and killing the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, were the following: First, by depriving Hezbollah of its leader , Israel wants to undermine the command structure of the group , possibly cause friction and disagreement within its membership, and thus make , the continuations of its attacks on northern Israel more difficult. Secondly, as Israel's leaders have claimed, the latest operations are aimed at forcing Hezbollah to withdraw to beyond the Litani river thus allowing the return of the displaced Israelis to their homes in areas close to the Lebanese border. In the long term, Israel wants to eliminate Hezbollah as an important element in Lebanese politics. There are significant political groups in Lebanon that for long have been unhappy about the group and its policies; including its close relations with Iran these groups would, welcome Hezbollah's weakening.  Israel also wants to drastically reduce Iran's influence in that country. Arab states would also welcome the erosion of Iran's presence in Lebanon.

Q: It seems that Israel is preparing for a ground attack on southern Lebanon. Will this attack be limited to creating a buffer zone?

A: Creating a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon is the minimum objective of Israeli operations against Lebanon. However, if Hezbollah cannot put up a strong defense and inflict significant damage on Israeli forces, Tel Aviv's ambition could very well go beyond just creating a buffer zone.

Q: After the assassination of Nasrallah, will Israel take action against Syria or Yemen's Houthis?

A: Israel has already launched attacks on Yemen and limited strikes in Syria. I doubt that Israel would launch full-scale attacks on Yemen or Syria, at least not until the Gaza and Lebanon operations are over. Attacks on Yemen are partly aimed at showing Iran's severe limitations in helping its surrogates in the region and thus humiliating Iran. However, once Gaza and Lebanon operations are over, Israel might turn its attention to Syria. Some Arab states and even Turkey could help it in changing the nature of Syrian regime.

Q: Some argue that Israel wants the continuation of chaos in the Middle East and does not start a big war. Don't the recent developments contradict this view?

A: The latest operations does not necessarily mean that Israel wants an all-out war. Israel cannot conduct and all-out war alone and would need US support. However, there is no appetite for such war in the US. Israel is trying to force Iran to react in a way that could trigger a US response.

Q: Some people argue that before the US elections, Israel plans to somehow drag Iran into war. Is it possible for Israel to do something to force Iran to fight directly?

A: It seems that Israel has decided that it should try and drastically alter the geopolitical dynamics in the region and eliminate or weaken those groups and forces, which oppose it. Israel views Iran as mainly responsible for all its problems in the region, including the latest events in Gaza and Lebanon. It has not made a secret of the fact that it seeks a political change in Iran. However, Israel by itself cannot fight Iran. Thus, it wants to create conditions that in case conflict breaks between it and Iran, the US would become involved. This would be very dangerous for Iran. So far, Iran has acted with prudence. It should continue this attitude, even in the face of severe Israeli provocations. In the case of war, no one will come to Iran's help. Already Arab states and Turkey are happy about events in Lebanon and the Killing of Sheikh Nasrallah. At this moment, Iran's survival should guide its leaders and no other objectives no matter how lofty.