Shireen Hunter: US, Qatar, and Egypt want Gaza ceasefire negotiations to succeed

Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that the US, Qatar, and Egypt want the Gaza ceasefire negotiations to succeed.

News ID: 5004

Date: 17 August 2024 - 12:52

TABNAK –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that the US, Qatar, and Egypt want the Gaza ceasefire negotiations to succeed.

She adds, “However, the terms of a potential cease fire acceptable to Hamas and one favored by Israel and the US are still widely different.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: The Gaza ceasefire negotiations ended in Doha, Qatar, while the three countries, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, declared it constructive, and it was decided to continue reviewing the details at next week's meeting in Cairo. What is your assessment of these negotiations?

A: In general, in any negotiation, the side which wants it to succeed claims that progress was achieved. Clearly, the US, Qatar, and Egypt want the talks to succeed. Therefore, they are claiming progress. However, the terms of a potential cease fire acceptable to Hamas and one favored by Israel and the US are still widely different. For example, the freeing of all Israeli hostages which the US and Israel want would deprive Hamas of an important bargaining chip, especially in the absence of a full cease fire. A temporary ceasefire would also mean that, any time it wanted, Israel could launch other offensives.  Therefore, at the moment, I am not optimistic about the success of current talks.

Q: Hamas has announced that the Doha negotiations were a waste of time and has demanded the implementation of the previous negotiations. Hamas believes that Netanyahu is trying to buy time by proposing new negotiations. Will the implementation of the three-phase plan of the US for the Gaza ceasefire be realized?

A: The enhanced efforts to agree on a ceasefire are largely due to the fear of a more widespread war in the region, following Haniya's assassination and Iran's declared intention of seeking revenge on Israel. The US and Arab states hope that a ceasefire could dissuade Iran from retaliating against Israel. By contrast, Netanyahu would welcome an Iranian attack, which could trigger an American response. He wants to embroil the US in a war with Iran and thus achieve its goal of destroying Iran's important infrastructure and possibly causing internal strife.

Q: The realization of the ceasefire will end Netanyahu's political life. Knowing this, Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire. Will America be able to put pressure on Netanyahu's government in this regard?

A: Certainly, the war has served Netanyahu's interests. However, political survival is not his only objective. He wants to create new realities in Gaza and make its total domination by Israel easier. For example, it is unlikely that after the war ends, the Palestinians would be allowed to run Gaza. At the least, Israel would be in charge of security.

Q: It seems that Iran and Hezbollah are considering the results of the Gaza ceasefire negotiations for a military response to Israel. Although Iran has declared that the ceasefire in Gaza is a priority, it has called Iran's reaction independent of it. What is your assessment?

A: If a ceasefire was achieved in Gaza, it would make it easier for Iran and Hezbollah to refrain from attacking Israel without losing face. This is one reason why both the US and Arab states are anxious for a ceasefire. By contrast, Israel wants to drag Iran into a confrontation with the US.