Following the US announcment of new sever sanctions on Iran on Monday, TABNAK reached out to Nader Entessar, professor emeritus of political science from the University of South Alabama for an interview.
Following is the full text of the interview:
The Iran-U.S. conflict at the current juncture is more focused on an economic war. One analysis argues that Iran wants this situation to last until the U.S. congressional elections and to set the stage for Donald Trump's defeat in the U.S. presidential election. This comes while Trump recently stated that whether you are a successful president or not, in any case you will lose in the midterm elections. That is, he considers the election outcome regardless of Iran's actions. What is your assessment?
I don't think the outcome of the midterm elections in the United States will have a major impact on Trump's war against Iran. Even if the Republicans lose control of one or both legislative chambers, the election results will have little impact on Trump's war policies. So far, neither public opinion, which has largely been against Trump's war, nor Congress has been crucial in affecting Donald Trump and his inner circle's pursuit of war against Iran. So, those in Iran who think the results of the upcoming congressional elections in the U.S. will change Trump's Iran policies are mistaken.
Regional countries, including Pakistan and Qatar, are holding consultations to revive Iran-U.S. negotiations. Do you consider these efforts fruitful, and is there a possibility of talks between the two sides in the short term?
The regional intermediaries may be effective on a marginal basis and can certainly continue to act as channels of communication between the two antagonists, which have no direct, face-to-face interactions with each other. The main problem is that Washington has generally viewed negotiations with Iran as a zero-sum game. This was true in the pre- and post-JCPOA era.
The U.S. assessment at present is that the naval blockade will compel Iran to make concessions. What is your assessment?
Absent a collapse of the Iranian system, which seems a remote possibility at this time, Iran is unlikely to concede to Washington's conditions, which are tantamount to total surrender by Iran.
Iran has announced that it will not tolerate the continuation of the naval blockade. In your view, could this situation lead to another full-scale conflict?
It may not lead to a sustained, full-scale war, but it can lead to periodic clashes between the two sides. However, if Iran feels that the naval blockade is choking the country's economy to a point of no return or collapse, then a return to a full-scale war becomes likely. We have to keep in mind that an economic blockade is a form of warfare, both under international law and in terms of national security. Military and economic warfare are two sides of the same coin. So far, the Iranian military has done a good job of defending the country against foreign aggression by two nuclear powers, one of which is a global power. But, unfortunately, this cannot be said of the managers of Iran's economy. Both military and economic warfare must act in tandem to deter the onset of another full-scale war between Tehran and Washington.
